Cum Clave analysis N.21 preview.
The cataclysm that has taken place in recent months has posed yet again many questions, sometimes repeated over time, often also in the awareness of already having the answers within. For years now we have been talking about the green turning point, the beautiful innovative and technological discoveries, but never as at this time has there been the need to change. Something doesn’t add back or someone is forgetting something.
We would favor the second hypothesis: the forgetting of Carbon Emissions Futures, but this choice is pure, benevolent.
On this financial instrument that has existed for years, the most disparate bullish and bearish bets are faced. Our reflection collides with market expectations and the real turning point, where billions of dollars are transferred from one “pocket” to another every day.
But let’s get to the point, the market presents an almost bland, neutral medium term graphic picture. Despite the shock and international restrictions, it is clear that the technical price structure has remained formally unchanged in the medium to long term.
In January the Futures quoted at 25.15 euros, while we write the marked price is 21.34 euros. It is true that in March there was a profound correction up to the € 14.50 area, relying on the 200-day moving average; but if we look at the time span more widely, the dynamic of values has not been shaken strongly by the events of these months. Since May 2017, the rise in values has been exponential starting from 4.45 euros. Remember that the current side phase has lasted since June 2018. The current resistance appears very strong for now and is placed in the 29.00 euro area.
In the short term, a gradual correction of the values up to € 19.80 is assumed. Caution and low volumes.